Gulf Energy Moves Again — 21 LNG Cargoes Cross Hormuz In September

The Gulf's LNG trade is showing signs of life again.

Kpler recorded 21 LNG cargoes leaving the Strait of Hormuz in September, the highest monthly total since the US-Israeli war on Iran began.

S&P Global Energy put the number slightly lower at 19 cargoes — 13 from Qatar and six from the UAE. While the two datasets differ, they point to the same broader trend: LNG traffic through the strategic waterway picked up sharply in the second half of September.

The increase is significant, but it does not mean the route is back to normal.

Before the conflict, roughly three LNG cargoes a day would routinely pass through Hormuz. September's Kpler figure works out at fewer than one cargo per day.

In other words, the market is recovering from exceptionally low wartime levels, rather than returning to its pre-war rhythm.

For Qatar and the UAE, every successful crossing is important.

For global gas buyers, the additional supply offers some breathing room as winter approaches.

And for Iran, the increase raises a difficult strategic question: how much commercial traffic can pass through the strait before Tehran sees the growing flow as a challenge to its leverage over the waterway?

WHAT HAPPENED?

The Strait of Hormuz is beginning to see more commercial activity.

Kpler recorded 21 LNG cargoes leaving the waterway in September, compared with 15 in June.

S&P Global Energy counted 19, with Qatar accounting for most of the shipments and the UAE making up the rest.

The change became particularly noticeable during the second half of September, when more QatarEnergy-linked LNG carriers were seen moving through the strait, both loaded and in ballast.

Three vessels associated with Qatar's Ras Laffan export terminal — Al Kharaitiyat, Al Gharrafa and Milaha Qatar — were later tracked outside Hormuz.

Their movements offered further evidence that Qatar's LNG shipping network was becoming more active despite the continuing security risks.

The overall numbers are still relatively small.

But the direction is different from earlier in the conflict.

QATAR LEADS THE RECOVERY

Qatar sits at the centre of the recovery.

Of the 19 September cargoes counted by S&P Global Energy, 13 originated from Qatar.

That is hardly surprising. Qatar is one of the world's largest LNG exporters, and its main export complex at Ras Laffan is located inside the Gulf.

For most Qatari LNG carriers, reaching international customers means passing through Hormuz. There is no straightforward alternative maritime route.

That makes the recent increase particularly important for Doha.

Every additional crossing creates another opportunity to deliver LNG to customers in Asia and other international markets.

At the same time, it leaves Qatar exposed to a strategic waterway that remains vulnerable to further military escalation.

THE UAE IS MOVING CARGOES TOO

Qatar is not the only Gulf exporter seeing activity return.

S&P Global Energy counted six UAE-linked LNG cargoes leaving Hormuz during September.

The UAE's LNG exports are considerably smaller than Qatar's, but the country also relies on the waterway for seaborne energy trade.

The return of UAE cargoes is another indication that Gulf producers, shipowners and traders are adjusting to a much more difficult security environment.

The broader point is clear: Gulf energy exports have not come to a complete standstill.

Instead, the industry is finding ways to keep operating despite the risks.

THE DARK-TRANSIT PROBLEM

There is an important caveat behind the shipping figures.

Some vessels crossing Hormuz have been making what the shipping industry calls "dark transits."

In these cases, a ship's Automatic Identification System (AIS) stops transmitting, either deliberately or because of interference.

AIS normally broadcasts a vessel's location, speed and direction. When the signal disappears, analysts lose visibility of the ship's exact movements.

That makes wartime shipping data much harder to interpret.

A vessel disappearing from tracking does not necessarily mean it has been attacked or intercepted. The AIS signal may simply have been switched off, or transmission may have been disrupted.

Several Qatar-linked vessels disappeared from tracking while inside the strait before later reappearing outside it.

As a result, the 21-cargo Kpler figure should be treated as an important estimate rather than an absolutely complete record of every movement.

MILAHA QATAR REACHES INDIA

The Milaha Qatar provides one of the clearest examples of the recent recovery.

The vessel was last observed inside Hormuz during September before later reappearing west of India.

It then headed toward Hazira on India's western coast, where it was reported to be preparing to discharge its cargo.

Two other Qatar-linked vessels, Al Kharaitiyat and Al Gharrafa, were also tracked after disappearing from visibility inside Hormuz and later reappearing off India's western coast.

The movements matter to India because Qatar remains an important LNG supplier to the country.

Regular Qatari deliveries give Indian buyers another source of supply and reduce the need to compete as aggressively for limited spot cargoes elsewhere.

But the journey also highlights the continuing vulnerability.

The LNG still has to pass through the same geopolitical chokepoint before reaching Indian terminals.

HORMUZ IS STILL FAR FROM NORMAL

The September numbers may look encouraging, but the comparison with normal traffic tells a different story.

Before the war, around three LNG cargoes a day routinely passed through Hormuz.

Kpler's 21 cargoes in September work out to roughly 0.7 cargoes per day.

That leaves traffic well below pre-war levels.

S&P Global Energy analyst Eric Yep said that if the recent acceleration continues into October, monthly LNG transits could recover to around 25% of pre-war levels.

Even that would leave the market operating at only a fraction of its previous capacity.

September should therefore be seen as a recovery milestone — not a return to normal.

WHY THE NUMBERS MATTER

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world's most important energy chokepoints.

Before the conflict, roughly one-fifth of global crude oil and LNG supplies moved through the waterway.

That makes every change in traffic important for global energy markets.

If more LNG can safely move through Hormuz, buyers in Asia and Europe have more supply available.

If traffic falls again, importers may have to compete more heavily for cargoes from the United States, Australia and other exporters.

That could put fresh upward pressure on prices.

For that reason, the market is watching vessel movements almost as closely as production figures.

WINTER IS THE REAL TEST

September offered some encouragement.

October will be more revealing.

The Northern Hemisphere is heading into winter, when gas demand typically rises, particularly in Europe and Asia.

That means buyers will need dependable LNG deliveries at exactly the time when shipping risks remain elevated.

There is also a geopolitical complication.

Analysts have warned that Iran could view increasing energy exports through Hormuz as a reduction in its leverage over the strategic waterway.

That leaves the region facing a delicate balance.

MORE LNG SHIPPING SUPPORTS GLOBAL ENERGY MARKETS.

MORE LNG SHIPPING COULD ALSO ADD TO GEOPOLITICAL PRESSURE.

Whether commercial traffic can continue through the winter may therefore depend as much on diplomacy and military restraint as on shipping economics.

THE COST OF KEEPING THE ROUTE OPEN

There is a financial cost to operating through a conflict zone.

Commercial vessels face higher insurance premiums, more complicated security arrangements and, in some cases, additional coordination or naval protection.

US naval escorts have supported commercial shipping movements, but maintaining that level of protection is expensive.

The calculation is particularly important for LNG carriers because they are specialised vessels carrying high-value cargoes.

A delay, diversion or security incident can quickly become extremely costly.

Shipping companies therefore have to weigh several factors at once:

CARGO VALUE

SECURITY COSTS

INSURANCE

FREIGHT RATES

DELIVERY CONTRACTS

GEOPOLITICAL RISK

A route can be technically open while remaining commercially difficult to use.

QATAR'S EXPORT CHALLENGE GOES BEYOND SHIPPING

Even if traffic through Hormuz continues to improve, Qatar faces another challenge.

The conflict has affected LNG production infrastructure at Ras Laffan.

That means restoring shipping access is only one part of the recovery.

Qatar needs both:

PRODUCTION CAPACITY

and

SAFE EXPORT ROUTES.

If production is disrupted while Hormuz remains open, there may not be enough cargoes available.

If production is operating normally but Hormuz is closed, the LNG cannot reach international buyers.

The two issues are therefore closely linked.

ASIA IS THE BIGGEST STAKEHOLDER

Much of the LNG moving through Hormuz ultimately serves Asian markets.

Japan, South Korea, China and India are among the world's largest LNG consumers, and Qatar has historically been an important supplier to these countries.

The September recovery therefore offers some relief to Asian buyers.

But it does not remove their exposure to the route.

A fresh disruption could tighten regional LNG supplies quickly.

India is particularly relevant because Qatar-linked vessels are already being tracked toward Indian ports.

For Indian energy companies, the key question is not simply whether Qatari LNG exists.

It is whether those cargoes can arrive consistently.

GLOBAL LNG MARKETS GET A SMALLER SHOCK CUSHION

The disruption around Hormuz has forced LNG buyers to rethink supply security.

Companies are looking at more diversified sources.

Long-term contracts are becoming more valuable.

Alternative suppliers are receiving greater attention.

Governments are also taking a closer look at strategic gas reserves and broader energy-security planning.

The September recovery could ease some of that pressure.

But it does not erase the bigger lesson from the crisis:

A low-cost energy supply means little if the route carrying it can be disrupted.

WHY THIS MATTERS

The 21 LNG cargoes recorded by Kpler are important because they show that the Gulf's energy system is adapting.

But the same number also shows how much remains disrupted.

Under normal conditions, roughly three LNG cargoes would pass through Hormuz every day.

September saw only 21 across the entire month.

That is still a substantial gap.

For global buyers, the recovery offers cautious optimism.

For Qatar and the UAE, it shows that commercial shipping can continue under difficult conditions.

For Iran, it creates another strategic calculation.

And for the global gas market, the next few weeks could prove critical.

FACT CHECK METER

FACT METER: 97%

STATUS: DEVELOPING

CONFIRMED

• Kpler recorded 21 LNG cargoes exiting the Strait of Hormuz in September.

• S&P Global Energy recorded 19 cargoes.

• S&P's figure included 13 Qatar-linked cargoes and six UAE-linked cargoes.

• September recorded the highest monthly LNG traffic since the war began.

• Kpler's September total increased from 15 cargoes in June.

• QatarEnergy-linked LNG vessels have recently been observed crossing or emerging from Hormuz.

• Some vessels have conducted "dark transits" by switching off AIS tracking.

IMPORTANT DISTINCTION

The 21-cargo Kpler figure and 19-cargo S&P figure are not necessarily contradictory.

The two companies use different shipping-data sources and methodologies.

The more important takeaway is that both datasets point to a clear increase in LNG traffic during September.

AWX VERDICT

Gulf LNG shipping is recovering, but traffic remains well below normal and the route is still exposed to renewed security shocks.

AWX FOCUS

The story is not simply that 21 LNG cargoes moved through Hormuz.

It is what those cargoes tell us about the wider energy system.

Qatar and the UAE are continuing to use one of the world's most important energy routes despite the risks.

Shipowners are adapting their operations.

And global buyers are beginning to receive some of the Gulf LNG that was disrupted during the early stages of the conflict.

But the recovery remains fragile.

A major escalation could quickly reverse the progress.

That is why every vessel movement is being watched closely.

WHAT TO WATCH NEXT

1. OCTOBER LNG TRANSITS
Will traffic stay above September's level?

2. QATAR CARGOES
Can Qatar maintain regular shipments through Hormuz?

3. UAE LNG FLOWS
Will UAE-linked cargoes continue to increase?

4. WINTER DEMAND
Can the route handle stronger gas demand in Asia and Europe?

5. US NAVAL ESCORTS
Will security protection remain available at a sustainable cost?

6. IRAN'S RESPONSE
Could higher commercial traffic trigger another escalation?

7. INDIA'S IMPORTS
Will more Qatar-linked LNG carriers reach Indian terminals?

THE AWX BOTTOM LINE

The Gulf's LNG trade is moving again.

Kpler counted 21 LNG cargoes through the Strait of Hormuz in September, while S&P Global Energy counted 19.

Whichever dataset is used, September recorded the strongest monthly LNG traffic since the war began.

Qatar led the recovery, while the UAE also contributed.

Several Qatar-linked vessels have reappeared outside the strait, including ships later tracked toward India.

But the recovery remains fragile.

Traffic is still far below the pre-war pace of roughly three LNG cargoes a day.

Some vessels are making dark transits.

Security costs remain high.

And the approach of winter could put the system under renewed pressure.

The Gulf has shown that LNG can still move through Hormuz under wartime conditions.

Now comes the harder question: can it keep moving?

21 cargoes crossed.

The recovery has begun.

The real test is whether the route can stay open.

ATTLAS WIRE | AWX WORLD NEWS

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