Saudi Arabia has spent years developing alternative ways to export crude in case the Strait of Hormuz becomes difficult or dangerous to use.

One of the most important is the East-West Pipeline, which carries crude from Saudi Arabia's oil-producing regions in the east across the kingdom to Yanbu on the Red Sea.

From Yanbu, tankers can head toward international markets without first passing through Hormuz.

But that alternative is now facing problems of its own.

A September attack disrupted crude shipments through Yanbu, while renewed Houthi activity around the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb has added another layer of risk for ships leaving Saudi Arabia's western coast.

For Riyadh, that raises an uncomfortable question: what happens if both major routes are under pressure at the same time?

WHAT HAPPENED?

Following disruption to the East-West Pipeline, Saudi Arabia increased the use of its eastern Gulf export terminals.

Reuters reported that Saudi Aramco loaded around 14 million barrels of crude onto seven very large crude carriers at Ras Tanura on September 20. Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz also rose significantly compared with August.

The shift highlights the limits of Saudi Arabia's backup system.

The East-West Pipeline was designed to reduce the kingdom's dependence on Hormuz. But if the pipeline is disrupted, or if the Red Sea route becomes unsafe, Riyadh has fewer ways to move large volumes of crude to overseas customers.

Saudi Arabia has also turned to alternative shipping arrangements, including ship-to-ship transfers near Oman, as it adjusts to changing security conditions.

THE SAUDI OIL ROUTE

At the center of the strategy is the East-West Pipeline.

The pipeline moves crude from Saudi Arabia's oil-producing regions in the east to Yanbu on the Red Sea.

Its purpose is simple:

Move Saudi oil west without sending every barrel through the Strait of Hormuz.

That makes Yanbu an important alternative when tensions rise around Hormuz.

But avoiding one chokepoint does not remove the wider shipping risk.

Crude leaving Yanbu for markets in Asia may need to travel south through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the narrow passage connecting the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and the wider Indian Ocean.

In other words, Saudi Arabia can bypass Hormuz — but it may still have to navigate another strategically sensitive waterway.

WHY THE RED SEA MATTERS

The Red Sea is far more than a regional shipping lane.

It connects the Indian Ocean with the Suez Canal and the Mediterranean, making it an important link between Asia, the Middle East and Europe.

That gives the Bab el-Mandeb enormous strategic importance.

Any threat to the strait can affect not only oil tankers but also container ships and other commercial vessels moving between major global markets.

Recent Houthi activity has added to those concerns. The Africa Center for Strategic Studies has described renewed Houthi attacks and increased leverage around Bab el-Mandeb as an important shift in the regional maritime-security environment.

For Saudi Arabia, the issue is especially significant because Yanbu has become more important as the kingdom looks for ways to reduce its exposure to Hormuz.

If ships cannot safely use the Red Sea, the value of Yanbu as an alternative export route becomes much more limited.

THE HOUTHI THREAT

The Iran-backed Houthi movement in Yemen has become a central part of the security equation around the Red Sea.

The group has carried out attacks on shipping and has also claimed attacks against Saudi targets.

Reuters reported that the Houthis claimed an attack on an Aramco facility in Yanbu in September, along with a reported attack on Riyadh. Those claims came during a wider escalation in the region.

There have also been reports of Houthi advances toward strategically important areas around the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb.

The concern extends well beyond Yemen.

Any group capable of threatening commercial shipping near the southern entrance to the Red Sea can increase the cost, insurance risk and uncertainty involved in moving Saudi crude toward international customers.

THE EAST-WEST PIPELINE PROBLEM

Saudi Arabia built the East-West Pipeline because it has long understood the risks of relying too heavily on the Strait of Hormuz.

But a pipeline is only one part of the export chain.

The crude still has to reach a port. Tankers then have to leave that port safely. And those ships must travel through international waterways before reaching their final destinations.

The September disruption showed how quickly a problem at one point in that chain can affect the wider system.

Reuters reported that the disruption pushed Saudi Arabia to increase exports from eastern Gulf terminals and move more oil through Hormuz.

That leaves Riyadh facing a difficult strategic balance:

Hormuz remains vulnerable.

The Red Sea is becoming more dangerous.

And the infrastructure designed to provide an alternative can also be targeted.

WHY ASIA IS WATCHING

The impact would not be limited to Saudi Arabia.

Asian economies are among the world's biggest buyers of Middle Eastern crude, making the security of Saudi export routes particularly important for countries such as India, China, Japan and South Korea.

If crude leaving Yanbu cannot safely pass through Bab el-Mandeb, tankers may have to take much longer routes.

One option is to travel around the Cape of Good Hope.

That can add substantial distance and time to a voyage, increasing fuel consumption, freight charges and insurance costs.

For Asian refiners, even a temporary disruption can therefore affect the cost and timing of crude deliveries.

The longer the disruption lasts, the greater the potential impact on regional fuel markets and refinery economics.

THE GLOBAL OIL MARKET

Oil prices are influenced by more than barrels physically removed from the market.

The possibility of disruption can be enough to push up risk premiums and transportation costs.

A prolonged threat to major shipping routes could increase:

  • tanker insurance costs

  • freight rates

  • delivery times

  • security premiums

  • pressure on crude prices

Those effects can spread well beyond the Middle East.

If Saudi Arabia has to depend more heavily on longer or riskier shipping routes, the additional cost of transporting crude can eventually feed through the wider energy system.

The situation is particularly sensitive because concerns around the Red Sea are developing while the Strait of Hormuz remains another major source of uncertainty.

WHY THIS MATTERS

1. SAUDI ARABIA'S BACKUP ROUTE IS BEING TESTED

The East-West Pipeline and Yanbu were developed to reduce Saudi Arabia's reliance on the Strait of Hormuz.

Recent attacks and security concerns are now testing whether that alternative can continue operating reliably during a wider regional crisis.

2. BAB EL-MANDEB IS A GLOBAL CHOKEPOINT

The southern entrance to the Red Sea connects a major commercial waterway with the Indian Ocean.

A serious disruption could affect both energy shipments and broader international trade.

3. OIL TRANSPORT COULD BECOME MORE EXPENSIVE

Even if crude continues to flow, longer voyages and higher security risks can raise transportation and insurance costs.

4. ASIAN BUYERS FACE SIGNIFICANT EXPOSURE

Having an alternative export route does not automatically mean Saudi crude can reach Asian customers quickly or cheaply.

If Red Sea shipping becomes unreliable, alternative routes could be considerably longer.

5. THE PROBLEM EXTENDS BEYOND OIL

The Red Sea carries much more than petroleum.

A prolonged disruption could affect container shipping, consumer goods, food supplies and global supply chains.

FACT CHECK METER

AWX FACT CHECK

STATUS: DEVELOPING

CONFIRMED

  • Saudi Arabia has increased crude exports from eastern Gulf terminals following disruption to the East-West Pipeline.

  • The East-West Pipeline connects Saudi oil-producing regions with the Red Sea coast.

  • Yanbu is an important Saudi oil-export hub.

  • Bab el-Mandeb is a strategically important maritime route linking the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden.

  • Houthi attacks and threats have increased pressure on Red Sea shipping.

NOT INDEPENDENTLY VERIFIED

  • The full future impact of Houthi influence around Bab el-Mandeb on Saudi oil exports.

  • The precise volume of Saudi crude that could be sustainably redirected through alternative routes during a prolonged crisis.

  • The long-term security of Saudi oil shipments through the Red Sea.

HOUTHI CLAIM

The Houthis have claimed attacks against Saudi targets, including an Aramco facility in Yanbu.

SAUDI POSITION

Saudi Arabia has sought to keep oil exports moving by shifting volumes between eastern Gulf terminals and Red Sea infrastructure as security conditions change. Recent shipping data indicates that Gulf exports have increased following disruption to Yanbu shipments.

AWX VERDICT

FACTUAL CORE: VERIFIED

RED SEA SECURITY RISK: SIGNIFICANT

IMPACT ON GLOBAL OIL: DEVELOPING

LONG-TERM SUPPLY DISRUPTION: NOT YET ESTABLISHED

WHAT TO WATCH NEXT

Saudi Arabia

Whether Riyadh can maintain crude exports at high levels despite pressure on both its eastern and western routes.

Yanbu

Whether shipments through the Red Sea port return to normal and whether the East-West Pipeline resumes full operations.

Bab el-Mandeb

Whether attacks or threats against commercial and oil-related shipping increase or ease.

Houthis

Whether the group expands attacks against Saudi energy infrastructure or international shipping.

Oil markets

Whether rising shipping risks lead to sustained increases in crude prices, tanker rates and insurance premiums.

Asian buyers

Whether refiners in India, China, Japan and South Korea face longer delivery routes or higher crude costs.

Regional diplomacy

Whether Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Iran and international powers can reduce tensions around the Red Sea.

THE AWX BOTTOM LINE

Saudi Arabia built the East-West Pipeline and developed Yanbu as a way to reduce its dependence on the Strait of Hormuz.

But the current situation is exposing a broader vulnerability.

Oil needs more than an alternative pipeline. It also needs a secure route once it reaches the sea.

That is why the Red Sea matters.

If the route through Yanbu and Bab el-Mandeb remains open and secure, Saudi Arabia retains an important alternative for moving crude toward international markets.

If that route becomes seriously disrupted while Hormuz also remains unstable, Riyadh could be left with far fewer options — and global oil markets could feel the impact.

For now, Saudi oil is still moving.

But the security of the routes carrying that oil is becoming one of the most important energy questions in the region.

ATTLAS WIRE | AWX WORLD NEWS

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