The flow of liquefied natural gas through the Strait of Hormuz is showing signs of recovery, despite the security risks that continue to surround the strategic waterway.

September saw the highest monthly number of LNG cargoes recorded leaving the Strait since the US-Israeli war on Iran began, according to shipping data from S&P Global Energy and Kpler.

S&P recorded 19 LNG cargoes leaving Hormuz during September, including 13 from Qatar and six from the United Arab Emirates. Kpler put the number slightly higher at 21 cargoes, compared with 15 in June.

The increase suggests Gulf exporters are finding ways to restart part of their LNG trade through one of the world's most important maritime chokepoints.

But the recovery should not be mistaken for a return to normal.

LNG volumes remain far below pre-war levels, while some vessels have used so-called "dark transits" by switching off their tracking systems while passing through the waterway.

WHAT HAPPENED?

LNG traffic through the Strait accelerated during the second half of September.

Qatar accounted for most of the recorded shipments, while the UAE also resumed a notable number of cargoes.

S&P Global Energy counted 19 LNG cargoes passing through the Strait during September, while Kpler recorded 21.

That makes September the strongest month for LNG traffic through Hormuz since the war began.

The recovery is particularly important for Qatar.

Most of Qatar's LNG exports to international markets have to pass through Hormuz. The same is broadly true for the UAE's seaborne LNG exports, making the waterway critical to both countries' energy industries.

Several Qatar-linked vessels have recently been tracked leaving the Gulf and continuing toward Asian destinations.

Among them were LNG carriers linked to QatarEnergy, including Al Kharaitiyat and Al Gharrafa.

Another vessel, Milaha Qatar, was tracked after crossing the waterway and later appeared near India's western coast. The vessel was subsequently reported to have offloaded at Hazira.

QATAR'S LNG FLOWS BEGIN TO RECOVER

Qatar has perhaps the most at stake.

Before the conflict, it was one of the world's largest LNG exporters, with the Strait of Hormuz serving as the main maritime gateway for its international shipments.

The International Energy Agency estimates that Qatar and the UAE accounted for virtually all LNG exports moving through Hormuz, with the waterway carrying almost 20% of global LNG trade in 2025.

That makes every successful crossing significant.

The recovery, however, remains limited.

Qatar's LNG exports fell sharply during the early months of the conflict, with shipping data showing a major decline in visible crossings compared with the same period a year earlier.

September's improvement therefore represents a recovery from exceptionally low levels rather than a full return to Qatar's normal export capacity.

UAE ALSO KEEPS CARGOES MOVING

The UAE has also played a role in the renewed LNG traffic.

S&P Global Energy counted six UAE-linked LNG cargoes leaving Hormuz in September.

The figure matters because the UAE also relies heavily on the maritime route to reach international LNG markets.

The return of UAE-linked cargoes suggests commercial operators are becoming more willing to attempt the crossing despite high war-risk insurance costs and continuing security concerns.

Still, the calculation remains difficult.

Shipping companies must weigh the value of each cargo against insurance costs, possible military threats, routing risks and the possibility that the security situation could change with little warning.

THE "DARK TRANSIT" PROBLEM

There is another reason the figures need to be treated with caution.

Some LNG carriers crossing Hormuz have switched off their Automatic Identification System, or AIS, transponders.

These movements are commonly described as "dark transits."

When a vessel stops transmitting its location, analysts have less visibility over its movements, making it difficult to establish the exact number of ships that have crossed the Strait.

For that reason, the 19-cargo S&P figure and Kpler's 21-cargo estimate should be viewed as tracking-based measurements rather than a definitive count of every movement.

A vessel disappearing from tracking does not necessarily mean it has been attacked or stopped. In some cases, the tracking signal may simply have been deliberately disabled.

The practice nevertheless underscores how sensitive shipping operations remain in the region.

WHY ARE LNG FLOWS RISING?

Several factors appear to be behind the increase.

1. SHIPPING OPERATORS ARE ADAPTING

After months of disruption, shipowners, energy companies and governments have developed new procedures for managing the risks associated with Hormuz crossings.

2. ASIAN DEMAND REMAINS STRONG

Asian buyers continue to depend heavily on Gulf LNG.

The IEA estimates that almost 90% of LNG volumes moving through Hormuz in 2025 were destined for Asian markets, highlighting the importance of Qatar and the UAE to energy supplies across the region.

3. MORE VESSELS ARE COMPLETING THE CROSSING

The security environment remains dangerous, but more ships have been able to complete the journey through the Strait.

That has created an opportunity for exporters to move at least some scheduled or previously delayed cargoes.

4. WINTER DEMAND IS APPROACHING

The next few months could provide another major test.

Northern Hemisphere winter typically increases natural gas demand, particularly in Europe and parts of Asia.

That could put additional pressure on Qatar and the UAE to keep LNG shipments moving.

BUT HORMUZ IS NOT BACK TO NORMAL

This is the key distinction.

September's 19–21 LNG cargoes represent a wartime high.

They do not signal a return to normal LNG traffic.

Analysts say that even if the September recovery continues into October, LNG transits could still reach only around 25% of pre-war levels.

That leaves the global LNG market vulnerable.

A major escalation could disrupt shipping once again.

Unlike oil, LNG exports from Qatar and the UAE have relatively limited alternative routes, making the Strait particularly important to global gas security.

GLOBAL LNG MARKETS REMAIN ON ALERT

The impact reaches well beyond the Gulf.

Asian buyers, particularly countries that depend heavily on imported LNG, are watching tanker movements closely.

Europe is exposed as well.

Several European buyers have continued to face disruptions to contracted Qatari LNG supplies, while QatarEnergy has extended force-majeure notices for some customers.

That means an improvement in physical LNG traffic does not automatically translate into a full recovery in contracted deliveries.

The market is effectively dealing with two different questions: what can physically move through Hormuz, and what energy companies can reliably guarantee to customers.

INDIA'S ENERGY WATCH

India is also closely tied to the developments.

Several Qatar-linked LNG vessels have recently been observed outside the Gulf, including ships moving toward or near India's western coast.

One Qatar-linked LNG carrier was reported to have offloaded at Hazira, highlighting India's role as an important destination for Gulf gas.

Greater LNG availability could help ease pressure on India's gas supplies and support industries that depend on imported natural gas.

But the risk premium remains.

If traffic through Hormuz is disrupted again, shipping costs, insurance premiums and LNG prices could rise rapidly.

WHY THIS MATTERS

The Strait of Hormuz is far more than a shipping route.

It is one of the world's most important energy chokepoints.

Before the war, roughly one-fifth of global crude oil and LNG supplies moved through the waterway.

For Qatar and the UAE, the stakes are even higher because there are few practical alternatives for exporting LNG to international markets.

The equation is straightforward:

More ships crossing Hormuz means more energy reaching global buyers.

But more ships crossing Hormuz also means greater exposure to security risks.

The recovery is therefore both an economic opportunity and a geopolitical vulnerability.

FACT CHECK METER

FACT METER: 95%

STATUS: DEVELOPING

CONFIRMED

  • LNG shipments through Hormuz reached their highest monthly level since the war began in September.

  • S&P Global Energy counted 19 cargoes.

  • Kpler counted 21.

  • S&P's tally included 13 Qatar-linked and six UAE-linked cargoes.

  • LNG traffic remains well below pre-war levels.

IMPORTANT DISTINCTION

The headline "Qatar & UAE keep Hormuz open" describes the continued movement of commercial vessels through the Strait. It does not mean the waterway is fully secure or guaranteed to remain open.

Security risks remain, and some vessels are using dark-transit practices.

AWX VERDICT

LNG traffic is clearly recovering, but describing Hormuz as fully "open" would overstate the situation.

September's numbers represent a significant improvement, but they remain only a fraction of normal flows.

AWX FOCUS

The biggest question now is not whether LNG ships can cross Hormuz.

They can.

The bigger question is whether they can continue doing so consistently.

September offered an encouraging signal for Qatar, the UAE and global LNG buyers.

But the market will need several more weeks — and potentially an entire winter — of uninterrupted crossings before the recovery can be considered durable.

For now, every LNG tanker that safely emerges from the Gulf represents more than another cargo delivered.

It is evidence that one of the world's most important energy corridors continues to function despite extraordinary pressure.

WHAT TO WATCH NEXT

1. OCTOBER LNG TRANSITS
Will September's recovery continue?

2. QATARENERGY DELIVERIES
Will suspended or delayed contractual shipments begin to return?

3. HORMUZ SECURITY
Could another military escalation quickly reverse the recovery?

4. LNG PRICES
Will winter demand amplify the impact of any renewed disruption?

5. INDIA AND ASIA
Will more Qatar-linked cargoes reach Asian buyers reliably?

6. SHIPPING INSURANCE
Will high war-risk premiums remain a major obstacle even if physical crossings continue?

THE AWX BOTTOM LINE

Qatar and the UAE are showing that LNG can still move through the Strait of Hormuz despite the extraordinary security environment surrounding the waterway.

September's 19–21 LNG cargoes marked the strongest monthly flow since the war began.

But the figure also highlights how far the market remains from normal.

The Strait is still a critical bottleneck. Qatar remains heavily dependent on it, Asian buyers remain exposed to disruption, and every LNG tanker crossing the waterway is operating within a heightened geopolitical risk zone.

For global energy markets, the message is simple:

Hormuz is moving again — but the world is still watching every ship.

ATTLAS WIRE | AWX WORLD NEWS

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