Fujairah's fuel market is beginning to move again.

After months of disruption linked to the Iran war and interruptions across Gulf supply routes, fuel-oil imports into the UAE's eastern port have picked up sharply. Bunkering activity is recovering, while exports to Asian markets are also gaining momentum.

But the recovery is far from complete.

The UAE imported around 2.6 million metric tonnes of fuel oil in the third quarter, more than three times the 845,000 tonnes recorded in the second quarter, according to Kpler data.

September imports alone reached roughly 856,000 tonnes, up from 715,000 tonnes in August.

That marks a significant improvement. But it is still only about half the 1.7 million tonnes imported in February, before the war disrupted regional energy flows.

The same story can be seen in Fujairah's storage tanks.

Residual-fuel inventories averaged around 4.5 million barrels a week in September, compared with roughly 9 million barrels before the conflict.

Fujairah is recovering, but it is doing so from a much weaker position.

WHAT HAPPENED?

Fujairah is one of the world's major marine-fuel hubs.

Its position on the UAE's eastern coast gives it an important advantage: the port lies outside the Strait of Hormuz and serves vessels moving between the Gulf and the Arabian Sea.

Even so, the war disrupted the hub.

Supplies from traditional Gulf sources were interrupted. Fuel arrivals fell, bunker sales dropped sharply and traders found it harder to replenish stocks.

That picture has started to change.

More cargoes are now reaching Fujairah, allowing the port to increase exports and restore more regular ship-refuelling activity.

Still, the supply chain is more complicated — and more expensive — than it was before the war.

IMPORTS SURGE — BUT THE GAP REMAINS

The third-quarter figures underline the scale of the rebound.

Fujairah's fuel-oil imports climbed from 845,000 tonnes in Q2 to 2.6 million tonnes in Q3.

For traders, that represents a major improvement in the flow of replacement supplies.

But September's 856,000-tonne total remains well below the 1.7 million tonnes recorded in February.

That difference matters.

It suggests the port is receiving substantially more fuel than it did during the worst of the disruption, but supply has yet to return to its previous rhythm.

Traders are still relying on a broader mix of suppliers, alternative shipping arrangements and routes shaped by continuing security concerns in the region.

SAUDI ARABIA EMERGES AS A KEY SUPPLIER

The supplier picture has also changed.

Before the war, Kuwait was Fujairah's leading fuel-oil supplier.

During July and August, however, Saudi Arabia moved into the top position.

Saudi Aramco's trading arm has also offered additional fuel oil through tenders for October loading, suggesting Saudi supplies could remain an important part of Fujairah's replenishment effort.

Russia has emerged as another significant source.

Other cargoes have been arriving through more complicated routes, including ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman.

Nigeria's Dangote refinery and suppliers in Pakistan have also contributed to the October supply picture.

The result is a more diversified supply network — but also one that is harder and more costly to manage.

THE "DARK" SHIPPING NETWORK

The war has also changed the way some fuel cargoes move through the region.

Traders have increasingly relied on practices such as:

SHIP-TO-SHIP TRANSFERS

SHUTTLE RUNS

DARK SHIPPING

These methods can help keep cargo moving despite security concerns and logistical restrictions.

But they also make the market harder to track.

Kpler has reported increased use of such methods as regional refiners and producers seek alternative ways to move fuel.

That does not automatically indicate illegal activity. It does, however, make conventional vessel tracking less reliable. Some ships temporarily switch off tracking systems, while others transfer cargo between vessels during a voyage.

The result is a supply chain that is moving again, but with less visibility than before.

FUJAIRAH BECOMES A NET EXPORT HUB AGAIN

The recovery is not limited to imports.

The UAE has also increased its fuel-oil exports.

Kpler data showed UAE fuel-oil exports reaching more than 1.4 million tonnes in September, the highest level in more than a year.

Most of those cargoes were headed for Southeast Asia.

That has helped restore the UAE's position as the Middle East's largest fuel-oil exporter.

It is a notable turnaround.

Earlier in the conflict, disruptions across the region had pushed the UAE down the export rankings. Now Fujairah is once again supplying international fuel markets.

But stronger exports should not be mistaken for a full recovery in domestic inventories.

The UAE is exporting more fuel even as Fujairah's stocks remain well below pre-war levels.

BUNKERING ACTIVITY IS COMING BACK

Fujairah's role goes beyond storing and exporting fuel.

Its most important business is bunkering — refuelling ships.

The port serves tankers, container ships, bulk carriers and other commercial vessels and is one of the world's major marine-fuel centres.

Bunker sales collapsed during the second quarter.

Since then, they have recovered, although industry sources say volumes remain below pre-war levels.

S&P Global Energy data showed bunker sales rebounding in July after hitting record lows during Q2, although activity weakened somewhat in August.

The arrival of additional fuel has supported the recovery.

That is positive for shipping, but it also highlights how much work remains.

A major global bunkering hub needs deep and dependable inventories to operate normally.

INVENTORIES ARE STILL THE WARNING SIGNAL

The clearest sign that Fujairah has not fully recovered can be found in its storage tanks.

Residual-fuel inventories averaged around 4.5 million barrels per week in September, up from approximately 3.9 million barrels in August.

But before the war, the comparable level was around 9 million barrels a week.

September stocks were therefore only about half the pre-war average.

That leaves the market with a much smaller cushion if another major supply interruption occurs.

A fresh disruption to Gulf shipping could put pressure on stocks again very quickly.

FUJAIRAH'S STOCKPILE REBOUND IS REAL

Weekly inventory figures provide another indication that the market is recovering.

Fujairah's total oil-product inventories jumped 59% in the week ending September 21, reaching 10.296 million barrels — the highest level in five months.

Heavy distillates, including fuels used in shipping and power generation, nearly doubled during that week.

But the following week showed just how quickly conditions can change.

By September 28, total inventories had fallen 20% to 8.216 million barrels.

Heavy-distillate stocks dropped 30%.

At the same time, middle-distillate inventories, including diesel and jet fuel, reached their highest level since February 23.

The message from the data is clear:

Fujairah can rebuild stocks quickly — but it can also draw them down just as quickly.

VLSFO REMAINS THE PRESSURE POINT

One of the biggest concerns remains very-low-sulphur fuel oil, or VLSFO.

It is one of the main marine fuels used by commercial shipping, and supply remains relatively tight.

Before the war, Fujairah's VLSFO market was supported by the local Vitol refining facility, along with supplies from Kuwait and Europe.

Those traditional flows were disrupted.

Traders have consequently faced tighter prompt availability and higher premiums.

Dan-Bunkering said VLSFO premiums were rising because cargo availability remained limited, although additional October shipments were expected to ease some of the pressure.

High-sulphur fuel oil, or HSFO, is in a more comfortable supply position.

That leaves the market split between two very different conditions:

HSFO — BETTER SUPPLIED

VLSFO — STILL TIGHT

ASIA IS TAKING THE EXTRA BARRELS

A large share of Fujairah's recovering fuel-oil exports is heading to Asia.

Southeast Asia is particularly important because of its large shipping sector and growing marine-fuel demand.

Singapore remains a major destination for Fujairah-linked cargoes, while Pakistan and Malaysia have also taken significant volumes.

Recent Vortexa data showed Fujairah's September fuel-oil exports rising by about 51,000 barrels per day to 357,000 bpd.

Singapore accounted for 34% of exports, followed by Pakistan at 16% and Malaysia at 11%.

That makes Fujairah an increasingly important supplier for Asian marine-fuel markets.

WHY FUJAIRAH MATTERS MORE NOW

The war has changed the strategic importance of Fujairah.

The port was already a major bunkering centre before the conflict. Now it is also being viewed as an important part of the UAE's energy-resilience strategy.

Its eastern-coast location allows energy products to move through a logistics network that is less directly dependent on the Strait of Hormuz.

That does not make Fujairah immune to disruption.

Suppliers still have to bring fuel into the port. Ships still have to navigate regional waters, and international trade remains exposed to security shocks.

But Fujairah offers something the Gulf needs badly:

AN ALTERNATIVE LOGISTICS NODE.

THE HORMUZ CONNECTION

There is an irony to Fujairah's position.

The port sits outside the Strait of Hormuz, yet it remains heavily influenced by events around the waterway.

Attacks and security threats have disrupted the wider Gulf shipping network, forcing producers and traders to look for alternative ways to keep cargo moving.

Across the Gulf, crude and fuel flows have recovered significantly, but refined-product exports remain much weaker than crude shipments.

Vortexa data showed Gulf oil flows excluding Iran recovering to more than 81% of pre-war levels in September, while refined-fuel exports were only around 60% of pre-war levels.

That gap is important.

Crude is returning faster.

Refined fuels are lagging.

And Fujairah sits directly in the middle of that refined-fuel recovery.

THE BIGGER MARKET PROBLEM

The global energy market is not recovering evenly.

Crude supplies are improving. Fuel-oil flows are improving. But inventories remain relatively thin.

Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser has warned that global commercial oil inventories are at extremely low levels after months of disruption.

That leaves the market with less of a buffer if another major supply shock occurs.

For Fujairah, rebuilding inventories is therefore about more than returning to normal trading.

The port needs enough stock to absorb another disruption without immediately sliding back into shortage conditions.

WHY THIS MATTERS

Fujairah's fuel market has implications far beyond the UAE.

The port supplies vessels operating across:

THE GULF

THE INDIAN OCEAN

THE RED SEA

SOUTHEAST ASIA

SOUTH ASIA

A shortage in Fujairah can therefore push bunker prices higher in other shipping markets.

Higher marine-fuel costs can raise the cost of moving everything from crude oil to manufactured goods.

Over time, those higher costs can feed into freight rates, supply chains and consumer prices.

Fujairah's recovery is therefore closely tied to the wider recovery of global shipping.

FACT CHECK METER

FACT METER: 97%

STATUS: DEVELOPING

CONFIRMED

  • UAE fuel-oil imports reached approximately 2.6 million tonnes in Q3.

  • September imports were about 856,000 tonnes.

  • September imports remained below February's 1.7 million tonnes.

  • UAE fuel-oil exports exceeded 1.4 million tonnes in September.

  • Fujairah bunker activity has recovered from Q2 lows.

  • September residual-fuel inventories averaged approximately 4.5 million barrels per week.

  • Pre-war inventories were around 9 million barrels per week.

  • VLSFO remains tighter than HSFO.

IMPORTANT DISTINCTION

Fuel flows are recovering, but Fujairah has not returned to pre-war supply conditions.

The sharp rise in imports and exports represents a recovery from deeply depressed wartime levels.

It does not mean the regional fuel market has fully normalised.

AWX VERDICT

Fujairah is rebuilding — but its inventory cushion remains too thin for comfort.

AWX FOCUS

Fujairah's recovery is one of the clearest signs that Gulf energy markets are adapting to the disruption.

Traders are finding new suppliers. Cargoes are taking alternative routes. Ship-to-ship transfers are becoming more common. And fuel is once again reaching one of the world's most important bunkering centres.

But resilience has its limits.

September inventories were still roughly half the pre-war average. Another major disruption could therefore turn a recovery into a shortage surprisingly quickly.

For now, Fujairah is moving in the right direction.

The challenge is to rebuild enough of a safety margin to withstand whatever comes next.

WHAT TO WATCH NEXT

1. OCTOBER FUEL ARRIVALS
Will Saudi, Russian, Nigerian and Pakistani cargoes push inventories higher?

2. VLSFO SUPPLY
Will October arrivals ease premiums on low-sulphur marine fuel?

3. BUNKER SALES
Can Fujairah return to pre-war refuelling volumes?

4. INVENTORY LEVELS
Will weekly stocks move closer to the pre-war 9-million-barrel average?

5. ASIAN EXPORTS
Will Southeast Asian demand remain strong?

6. HORMUZ SECURITY
Could another shipping disruption reverse the recovery?

THE AWX BOTTOM LINE

Fujairah's fuel machine is running again.

Imports have surged. Exports have climbed. Bunkering activity has recovered, and new suppliers are helping the UAE rebuild its fuel network.

But the numbers still carry a warning.

September imports remained well below February's level. Residual-fuel inventories were only about half their pre-war average. VLSFO remains tight, while the wider Gulf shipping network is still vulnerable to geopolitical shocks.

Fujairah has moved from crisis to recovery — but it has not yet reached normal.

The port is once again supplying ships and sending fuel toward Asia.

The bigger question is whether it can rebuild enough inventory to withstand the next shock.

The fuel is flowing again.

The safety cushion is still missing.

ATTLAS WIRE | AWX WORLD NEWS

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