The global food market is showing signs of renewed strain.

Food commodity prices rose to their highest level in almost four years in September, according to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). Weather concerns, supply worries and transportation disruptions pushed several major agricultural markets higher.

The FAO Food Price Index reached 136.0 points in September, up 1.5% from August and 5.8% from a year earlier. It was the highest reading since November 2022.

The biggest increases came from cereals, sugar and vegetable oils.

And now another risk is coming into sharper focus: El Niño.

The World Meteorological Organization said on October 8 that the current El Niño is expected to strengthen and continue until at least February 2027, with an almost 100% probability that it will persist through that period.

El Niño can alter rainfall and temperature patterns across major farming regions. Some areas may face drought, while others could see excessive rainfall.

That is raising a bigger question for traders and policymakers: is the latest rise in food prices simply a short-term commodity move, or could it become something more persistent?

WHAT HAPPENED?

The FAO's September figures show that the pressure is spreading across several parts of the food market.

The overall index rose to 136.0 points, but some categories saw much sharper increases.

Cereal prices rose 5.1% in September.

Sugar prices increased 6.1%.

Vegetable-oil prices climbed 0.9%.

Meat prices, by contrast, fell 1.1%, while dairy prices were largely unchanged.

What makes the situation unusual is that global food production has not collapsed.

FAO still expects world cereal production in 2026 to reach around 2.979 billion tonnes, which would be the second-largest harvest on record.

The problem is less about the world suddenly running out of food and more about uncertainty over where supplies are available, how easily they can be moved and what future harvests might look like.

EL NIÑO CHANGES THE EQUATION

Weather is now one of the biggest risks facing agricultural markets.

The WMO expects the current El Niño to strengthen before reaching its peak around December.

Sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific could reach as much as 3.7°C above normal between October and December.

That would represent an unusually strong warming event.

El Niño is a natural climate pattern, but its effects can be felt far beyond the Pacific. It can influence rainfall, temperatures and storm patterns across major agricultural regions.

Some countries may experience drought, while others could deal with excessive rain and flooding.

Both can damage crops.

That is why weather forecasts are becoming just as important to commodity traders as traditional supply-and-demand data.

SUGAR IS ALREADY FEELING THE PRESSURE

Sugar is one of the clearest examples of how weather concerns can quickly affect global prices.

The FAO Sugar Price Index jumped 6.1% in September, reaching its highest level since April 2025.

The increase was driven partly by expectations of tighter supplies during the 2026/27 season.

Several major producing regions are facing challenges at the same time.

Thailand is expected to produce less sugar. India's crop outlook has been affected by below-normal rainfall and strengthening El Niño conditions.

In Brazil, heavy rainfall in the Centre-South region has disrupted harvesting.

The European Union is also expected to produce less sugar beet following a decline in planted area and difficult growing conditions.

A weather problem in one region can therefore become a global pricing issue surprisingly quickly.

WHEAT IS UNDER PRESSURE TOO

Wheat markets are also facing a more uncertain outlook.

Global wheat prices rose 6.3% in September, reaching their highest level since August 2023.

Two issues are playing a role.

The first is logistics.

Disruptions affecting Black Sea trade have made it harder for some importers to rely on traditional suppliers.

The second is weather.

Dry conditions in parts of North America ahead of winter-wheat planting are adding to concerns about future production.

For now, the issue is not that the world has suddenly run out of wheat.

The bigger concern is whether supplies can continue moving smoothly from major producing countries to international buyers.

MAIZE IS FLASHING ANOTHER WARNING

Corn, also known as maize, prices increased 5.6% in September.

The rise was linked to lower-than-expected U.S. yields and reduced export availability from Brazil.

Disruptions to Black Sea trade added another layer of uncertainty.

There is also a strong connection between maize and energy markets.

Corn is used for food and animal feed, but it is also an important biofuel feedstock.

When oil prices rise, demand for biofuel production can increase, which can in turn affect demand for agricultural commodities.

That means food and energy markets are becoming increasingly difficult to separate.

VEGETABLE OILS ARE MOVING HIGHER

Vegetable oils are another part of the global food-price story.

The FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index rose 0.9% in September and was 18.3% higher than a year earlier.

Palm oil was the main contributor to the increase.

Strong international demand, combined with concerns about dry weather in Southeast Asia, pushed palm-oil prices higher.

Vegetable oils are used for much more than cooking. They are important inputs for food manufacturing, household products and biofuels.

A sustained increase can therefore affect both food costs and parts of the energy market.

SHIPPING PROBLEMS ARE ADDING TO THE PRESSURE

Weather is not the only concern.

Transportation and shipping disruptions are also making the food market more vulnerable.

The Black Sea is a crucial export route for grains. Any disruption can reduce the amount of wheat and maize reaching global buyers even when production remains relatively strong.

The Strait of Hormuz presents another potential source of pressure.

Higher fuel, freight and insurance costs make it more expensive to transport agricultural commodities around the world.

FAO Chief Economist Maximo Torero has warned that disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz and Black Sea, combined with climate-related shocks, are putting pressure on energy, transportation and food commodities.

If those costs remain elevated, some of the pressure could eventually reach consumers.

THE WORLD STILL HAS A LARGE HARVEST

There is an important reason not to describe the current situation as a global food crisis.

FAO's latest forecast puts 2026 global cereal production at roughly 2.979 billion tonnes.

That would still be the second-highest harvest ever recorded.

So the current price increases are not simply the result of a worldwide food shortage.

Instead, several pressures are building at the same time:

Weather uncertainty.

Regional crop problems.

Shipping disruptions.

Higher energy costs.

Trade restrictions.

Tighter expectations for future supplies.

That distinction matters.

A large global harvest gives markets some protection. But if weather problems spread across several major producing regions at once, that cushion could disappear much faster than expected.

COULD THIS BECOME A GLOBAL FOOD-INFLATION SHOCK?

That is the question now facing governments, investors and central banks.

Commodity prices do not immediately translate into supermarket prices.

Retailers, processors and food manufacturers often have existing contracts and inventories that can delay the impact.

But if higher commodity prices persist, pressure eventually moves through the supply chain.

Higher wheat prices can affect bread and flour.

Higher sugar prices can raise costs for beverages and processed foods.

Higher vegetable-oil prices can affect packaged foods and cooking costs.

Higher maize prices can push up animal-feed expenses.

And higher energy prices make transportation more expensive across the entire supply chain.

That is how a commodity shock can eventually turn into consumer inflation.

FAO has warned that if current pressures continue, they could feed through to consumer food prices, particularly in countries heavily dependent on imported food and energy.

EMERGING MARKETS FACE THE BIGGEST RISK

The impact will not be the same everywhere.

Countries that rely heavily on imported food and energy are particularly exposed.

A weaker local currency can make matters worse by increasing the domestic cost of imported commodities.

For lower-income households, the consequences can be especially serious because food accounts for a larger share of household spending in many developing economies.

Even a relatively modest increase in global food prices can therefore have a significant social impact.

Governments may respond with subsidies, tariff changes, export restrictions or emergency imports.

But such measures can also create new distortions in global markets.

INDIA IS IN THE WEATHER CROSSHAIRS

India matters because it is both a major agricultural producer and one of the world's largest food-consuming economies.

The FAO has already highlighted concerns about India's sugar crop because of below-normal rainfall and strengthening El Niño conditions.

For Indian consumers, however, sugar is only part of the picture.

Weather conditions can influence rice, wheat, pulses, edible oils and other major agricultural commodities.

A strong El Niño does not automatically mean every Indian crop will suffer. Much depends on when, where and how much rain arrives.

But uncertainty alone can influence commodity markets, especially when traders are already watching global supplies closely.

COFFEE AND COCOA ARE ALSO EXPOSED

The weather risk goes well beyond staple grains.

Coffee, cocoa and tea are particularly vulnerable because production is concentrated in a relatively small number of countries.

FAO continues to identify drought, frost and excessive rainfall as major triggers of price increases in these markets.

Cocoa production is heavily concentrated in West Africa, while Brazil and Vietnam account for a large share of global coffee production.

When weather damages crops in a major producing country, there may be relatively few alternative suppliers available.

That concentration can lead to sharp price movements in a short period.

CENTRAL BANKS HAVE A NEW PROBLEM

Food inflation creates a difficult balancing act for central banks.

If food prices rise temporarily, policymakers may be able to look past the initial shock.

But if weather disruptions persist and higher food costs begin influencing broader inflation expectations, the situation becomes much harder to manage.

Energy prices are also elevated, creating a potentially uncomfortable combination:

Higher oil + higher food prices + weaker growth.

Central banks could face pressure to keep interest rates higher for longer, even as households deal with rising living costs.

That is one of the risks investors will be watching closely.

WHY THIS MATTERS

The September food-price figures are not evidence that a global food crisis is already underway.

But they are a warning sign.

Several pressures are now moving in the same direction.

Weather is becoming more unpredictable.

El Niño is strengthening.

Black Sea shipping remains vulnerable.

Energy and freight costs are elevated.

And several important crops are showing signs of tighter supply.

The biggest risk may not be one failed harvest.

It is several problems happening at the same time.

FACT CHECK METER

FACT METER: 98%

STATUS: DEVELOPING

CONFIRMED:

The FAO Food Price Index reached 136.0 points in September 2026, its highest level since November 2022 and 5.8% above September 2025.

CONFIRMED:

Cereal prices increased 5.1%, sugar prices rose 6.1% and vegetable-oil prices increased 0.9% in September.

CONFIRMED:

The WMO expects the current El Niño to strengthen and persist until at least February 2027, with exceptionally high Pacific sea-surface temperatures forecast later this year.

IMPORTANT DISTINCTION:

Global cereal production is still expected to be the second-highest on record in 2026. The current price increase therefore does not, by itself, prove that the world is facing a global food shortage.

AWX VERDICT:

Weather is becoming an increasingly important risk for global food prices. Whether the current commodity shock turns into a prolonged consumer-inflation problem will depend largely on how long the weather disruptions last and how widely they spread.

AWX FOCUS

The biggest question is no longer whether food prices are rising.

They are.

The bigger question is whether the world is entering a period in which weather repeatedly disrupts supplies before markets have enough time to rebuild their buffers.

That is what makes the current El Niño particularly important.

If weather problems remain localized, global markets may be able to absorb them.

But if drought, flooding and extreme heat hit several major agricultural regions at the same time, prices could move much faster.

With energy and shipping costs already elevated, consumers may have less room to absorb another major food-price shock.

WHAT TO WATCH NEXT

1. EL NIÑO INTENSITY
Whether the weather event reaches the extreme levels currently projected.

2. WHEAT AND MAIZE YIELDS
Crop conditions in North America and the Black Sea region will be closely watched.

3. INDIA'S SUGAR CROP
Rainfall and production forecasts could influence global sugar prices.

4. SOUTHEAST ASIAN PALM OIL
Dry conditions could put further pressure on vegetable-oil markets.

5. BLACK SEA SHIPPING
Any additional disruption could quickly push grain prices higher.

6. FOOD RETAIL PRICES
The key question is whether higher commodity costs begin showing up more clearly at supermarkets.

7. CENTRAL BANKS
Persistent food inflation could make interest-rate decisions more difficult around the world.

THE AWX BOTTOM LINE

The world is not running out of food.

But the global food market is becoming less comfortable.

Prices have climbed to their highest level in nearly four years. Wheat, maize, sugar and vegetable oils are all facing pressure. Shipping routes remain vulnerable, while the global weather outlook is becoming more uncertain as El Niño strengthens.

The next major food-price shock may not come from one failed harvest.

It could come from several weather, supply and transportation problems arriving at the same time.

The harvest may still be large. But the margin for error is getting smaller.

ATTLAS WIRE | AWX WORLD NEWS

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